Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/21/2024

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -185, Cubs -1.5 160
• Money Line: Marlins 110, Cubs -130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -105

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 46%
• Chicago Cubs - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 48.94%
• Chicago Cubs - 51.06%

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Miami Marlins on April 21, 2024, at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 13-8, are having a great season, while the Marlins, with a record of 5-17, are struggling.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has had a tough start to the season. In four games, Hendricks has a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 12.71, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera, who has been performing well. In one game, Cabrera has an ERA of 1.50, which is excellent. However, his xERA suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

Both teams have had contrasting seasons offensively. The Cubs rank as the 6th best offense in MLB, with a good team batting average and stolen base ranking. In contrast, the Marlins rank as the 29th best offense, with a high team batting average but low rankings in home runs and stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs to have a 52% win probability, while the Marlins have a 48% win probability. The current odds reflect a close game, with the Cubs as the favorites (-130 moneyline) and the Marlins as the underdogs (+110 moneyline).

Based on the projected team totals, the Cubs have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Marlins' average implied team total of 4.05 runs. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score 4.49 runs on average, while the Marlins are projected to score 4.57 runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Edward Cabrera has utilized his secondary offerings 16% more often this year (79.1%) than he did last season (63.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has big-time HR ability (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's 87.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 1st percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Busch has been hot recently, whalloping 5 long-balls in the last 14 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.77 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 69 away games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction: Marlins 4.34 - Cubs 4.18

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