Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 5/14/2025

As the Chicago Cubs host the Miami Marlins on May 14, 2025, this matchup carries significant implications for both teams. The Cubs sit at 25-18, enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins are struggling at 15-26. In their most recent game, the Cubs were victorious, continuing their momentum in what’s shaping up to be a highly competitive series.

On the mound, Chicago is projected to start Jameson Taillon, a right-handed pitcher with a 2-2 record and a 4.53 ERA this season. While Taillon ranks as the 125th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he might be due for better results. He’s projected to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters, which indicates he could effectively manage the Marlins' lineup.

Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Weathers is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings and is expected to yield 2.3 earned runs while striking out just 3.9 batters. His performance has been below average, and he’s likely to face challenges against a potent Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB. The Cubs have a high implied team total of 4.73 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Weathers’ weaknesses.

With the Cubs’ offense also ranking 2nd in stolen bases and 3rd in home runs, they have the tools to exploit the Marlins, whose offense ranks only 18th overall. Given the Cubs’ solid form and the Marlins’ struggles, this game presents a favorable opportunity for Chicago to further establish their dominance in the series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's 95.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 91st percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph EV last season has dropped off to 84.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Justin Turner generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Weathers.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in today's game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .322, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .334 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+15.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.71, Chicago Cubs 4.38

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.