Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field in a National League matchup that carries significant weight for both teams. The Cubs, sitting at 24-18, are enjoying a solid season, while the Marlins struggle at 15-25. In their last outing, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess with a strong performance, bringing momentum into this game.

Ben Brown is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Currently ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, Brown has had a mixed season with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 4.95. However, his xFIP of 3.55 suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could be poised for better results. He projects to average 5.6 innings with a strong projection of allowing just 1.8 earned runs.

Opposing him will be Valente Bellozo, who has struggled this season, with a 0-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.50. However, his xFIP of 5.83 indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. Bellozo is a high-walk pitcher facing a Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in drawing walks, which could lead to trouble for him.

The Cubs' offense has been exceptional, ranking 3rd in home runs and 2nd in stolen bases, while the Marlins rank 23rd in home runs. Given the Cubs' offensive firepower and the projections that favor their batting lineup, they appear to have a significant edge going into this game. The betting line further supports this, as the Cubs are favored at -245, reflecting a high implied team total of 5.13 runs, compared to the Marlins' low 3.37 runs. Expect the Cubs to capitalize on any mistakes by Bellozo and continue their strong push in the standings.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matt Mervis is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's high usage percentage of his fastball (60.2% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Seiya Suzuki has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.5-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.5, Chicago Cubs 4.71

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

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