Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/12/2025

As the Chicago Cubs face off against the Miami Marlins on May 12, 2025, this matchup carries some weight in the standings. The Cubs, sitting at 23-18, are enjoying a solid season, while the Marlins, at 15-24, are struggling significantly. The Cubs are a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -245, indicating strong confidence in their ability to secure a win.

On the mound, Chicago is projected to start Colin Rea, who has shown promise this season with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.43. Although his advanced stats suggest he might have been lucky so far, he projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs today—numbers that favor the Cubs. Meanwhile, Cal Quantrill, starting for the Marlins, has struggled with a 7.11 ERA and a 2-3 record this year. His projections also indicate a rough outing today, suggesting he could allow 2.9 earned runs over just 4.9 innings.

Overall, the Cubs’ offense ranks 3rd in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Marlins' offense is just average at 18th in the league. With the Cubs' strength at the plate and Rea's solid pitching performance, they are well-positioned to take this first game in the series against Miami.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Cal Quantrill has relied on his non-fastballs 9% more often this season (68.8%) than he did last season (59.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea's 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph spike from last year's 92.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Miami (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.77, Chicago Cubs 4.85

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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