Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 4/19/2024

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • A.J. Puk - Marlins
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -135, Cubs -1.5 115
• Money Line: Marlins 150, Cubs -170
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 39%
• Chicago Cubs - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 43.65%
• Chicago Cubs - 56.35%

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. As the home team, the Cubs have been enjoying a great season with a record of 11-7, while the Marlins have been struggling with a record of 4-15. This National League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who is considered an average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Taillon is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs. While his strikeout rate is below-average, he has been struggling with allowing hits and walks.

On the other hand, the Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher A.J. Puk, who has been performing poorly this season. Puk has started two games, with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 5.91. His xFIP suggests that he has been lucky so far and is likely to perform worse going forward. Puk is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs.

The Cubs offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 9th best in MLB in terms of overall performance. Their best hitter, Michael Busch, has been leading the team with a .317 batting average and 1.067 OPS. In their last game against the D-Backs, the Cubs won 5-3, showing their ability to compete against strong opponents.

In contrast, the Marlins offense has struggled, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Jazz Chisholm, has recorded 4 stolen bases this season. In their last game against the Giants, the Marlins lost 3-1, highlighting their offensive challenges.

Considering the team's performance and the starting pitchers, the Cubs are the clear favorites for this game. With a projected win probability of 56% according to THE BAT X, the Cubs have a strong chance of securing a victory. The Marlins, however, have been given a win probability that is 5% greater than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the underdog.

With a high implied team total of 5.34 runs, the Cubs' offense is expected to perform well against A.J. Puk, who struggles with control and walks. The Marlins, with an average implied team total of 4.16 runs, will need to overcome their offensive struggles to compete with the Cubs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Luis Arraez will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has been unlucky since the start of last season, posting a 5.02 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.26 — a 0.76 difference.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Cody Bellinger has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 27.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 18.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+8.87 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction: Marlins 4.31 - Cubs 4.66

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.