Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 8/16/2025
The Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox will face off in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday afternoon. Boston got the win in a low-scoring game in Friday’s series opener. We could see more offense on display when these teams take the field on Saturday. Before the action begins in Boston, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Red Sox prediction for the day.
Our Marlins vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025, 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time
- Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (Boston) vs Cal Quantrill (Miami)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN and FDSFL
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Boston’s Brayan Bello enters with an 8–6 record and a 3.25 ERA. He has showcased solid form this season but is looking to recover from getting shellacked by the San Diego Padres in his last start. Miami will counter with Cal Quantrill. Quantrill is 4–9 with a 5.09 ERA and the Red Sox should have the starting pitching edge with Quantrill on the bump.
Key Players
Miami’s Kyle Stowers and Xavier Edwards are the most important contributors on the team. Stowers drove in Edwards with an RBI double to score Miami’s only run on Friday. Boston got a walk-off RBI single from Trevor Story in the bottom of the ninth inning in last night’s win and Story will be a key member of the Boston lineup again here.
Recent team streaks
The Marlins have cooled off after a strong July. They are 3–7 over their last 10 games and have lost two games in a row entering this one. The Red Sox have won two of their last three games. They enter this contest holding the second AL Wild Card spot.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Brayan Bello | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston won the first game of the season series between these teams on Friday.
- The first game of this series went under the total with just three total runs scored.
Marlins vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Marlins 3
Win Probability: Red Sox 60%, Marlins 40%
Final Thoughts
Boston has a starting pitching advantage in this game and an edge in the bullpen for when the starters depart. The Red Sox have been great at home this year and I expect that to continue at Fenway today. Look for the overall depth of the Red Sox lineup to be on display in this game as I expect them to get to Quantrill early and win this game while covering the runline.
