Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 8/15/2025
The Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox will clash on Friday night at Fenway Park. Boston has played very well at home this season and needs to keep piling up home wins to have a chance to keep up with the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the AL East standings. Before Miami and Boston open up their three-game weekend series on Friday, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Red Sox prediction for the night.
Our Marlins vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Friday, August 15, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcántara (MIA) vs Lucas Giolito (BOS)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN and FDSFL
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Sandy Alcántara is 6-11 with a 6.55 ERA and takes the mound for Miami to start this game. His season has been disappointing and he will look to rebound from his last two starts where he allowed a combined 12 runs. Lucas Giolito is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA for the Red Sox this season. Giolito has built momentum with recent wins over Houston and Minnesota. He will look to stay hot on the hill in this matchup.
Playoff Picture
The Marlins are starting to fade in the NL Wild Card race. They are six games back of the final Wild Card spot and would need to jump over a lot of teams to get into the postseason. Boston is in much better shape in the AL Wild Card race. They are holding the second Wild Card position going into this series opener.
Recent Team Streaks
Boston is 1-4 in its last five games and just lost two out of three to the Houston Astros. Miami has also dropped four of its last five games. Their last series saw them drop two out of three to the Cleveland Guardians.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Sandy Alcántara (MIA) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game of the season series between the Marlins and Red Sox this season.
- Boston is 39-22 at home for the season.
- The Marlins are 30-32 on the road for the year.
Marlins vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Marlins 4
Win Probability: Red Sox 57 %, Marlins 43 %
Final Thoughts
In the past, I would probably take Sandy Alcantara to win a pitching matchup against Lucas Giolito. But Alcantara has lost the level that would allow me to make such a decision. In this game, I will take the Red Sox to win at home. They have been dominant at Fenway Park and should be able to get the better of a struggling starting pitcher in Alcantara.
