Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 8/17/2025
The Boston Red Sox will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins on Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park. Boston comes in as the clear favorite with their ace on the mound. Miami has one of their best pitchers throwing here as well. But only one pitching staff will lead its team to a win here. Before this series finale, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Red Sox prediction.
Our Marlins vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 17, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Janson Junk vs Garrett Crochet
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN and FDSFL
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Garrett Crochet has been one of MLB’s best arms this season for the Red Sox. He is 13-5 with a 2.48 ERA over more than 150 innings and has racked up 188 strikeouts. Facing him is Janson Junk for the Marlins. Junk has been a pleasant surprise whose 6-2 record is backed by an ERA just over 4.00. Boston does have the starting pitching advantage here but the gap isn’t as big as one might think.
Key Players
- Trevor Story hit a home run for the Red Sox in their 7-5 win over Miami on Saturday. Story will be an important part of the Red Sox offense in this game as well.
- Agustin Ramirez hit his 18th home run of the 2025 season in Miami’s loss on Saturday. Power from the DH spot would be great for Miami to get on Sunday.
Recent team streaks
- Boston has won the first two games of this series and three of their last four games overall.
- Miami has lost three straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Garrett Crochet | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Kyle Stowers | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox have won both games of the season series between these teams this year.
- This is the final regular season game scheduled between these teams for the year.
- The over/under is 1-1 in games between Boston and Miami.
- Boston has won seven of its last eight games at Fenway Park.
Marlins vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Marlins 3
Win Probability: Boston 65%, Miami 35%
Final Thoughts
Garrett Crochet gives the Red Sox a sizable advantage on paper. But Janson Junk could surprise some people with his pitching in this game. Junk is better than most would give him credit for and I think he will compete with Crochet for the most part in this one. Instead of taking a side, I think the under is the best bet for what could be a pitcher’s duel for the most part.
