Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/3/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins in a pivotal matchup on August 3, 2024, the Braves are looking to solidify their standing in the National League East. Currently, Atlanta holds a record of 60-49, reflecting a solid season, while the Marlins sit at a dismal 40-70, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Braves got the better of the Marlins and will be looking to capitalize on their recent form in this contest.

On the mound, Braves' pitcher Grant Holmes is projected to start, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.54 this season. However, the advanced stats suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP sits at 3.18. While he has had a solid year with a low walk rate of 4.7%, Holmes's projections indicate he might allow 2.5 earned runs over roughly 4.8 innings, which is slightly concerning given the Braves' offensive inconsistencies.

Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Kyle Tyler, who has a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an average ERA of 4.74. Although Tyler has had a high walk rate of 11.3%, his underlying metrics suggest he has been unlucky and could see improved results. However, he projects to allow 3.3 earned runs in about 4.5 innings, which may work against the Marlins, who rank 29th in the league in offensive production.

Despite the Braves' average run production, their incredible bullpen ranks 3rd best in MLB, which could help them hold onto any lead taken early in the game. THE BAT X projects the Braves to score an impressive 5.94 runs on average, highlighting their potential to capitalize on the Marlins' struggles. Meanwhile, Miami's offense has struggled throughout the season, and projections suggest they might manage only 4.64 runs—putting them at a disadvantage as they look to upset their division rivals tonight.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average pitcher, Kyle Tyler has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -11.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Compared to their .337 overall projected rate, the .325 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected lineup in today's game suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 87 games (+24.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 54 away games (+16.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.66 vs Atlanta Braves 5.83

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