Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/4/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 4, 2024, the stakes are high for the Braves, who are looking to rebound after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Marlins just yesterday. Currently, the Braves sit at 60-50, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins languish with a dismal 41-70 record, marking a stark contrast in performance.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Braves, ranks as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid ERA of 3.08 this season, Fried has been an elite performer, although his peripheral stats suggest he may be due for some regression. His last outing was impressive, going 6 innings while allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 7 batters. Fried's ability to induce ground balls (59% GB rate) could play well against a Marlins offense that has struggled with power, ranking 2nd worst in MLB with only 85 home runs this season.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera is set to take the mound for Miami. While he has shown flashes of potential, his 6.65 ERA this year reflects a tough season, and he’s considered an average pitcher overall. Cabrera's high walk rate (12.8 BB%) could be problematic against a Braves lineup that has been patient, ranking 5th least in walks drawn.

With the Braves boasting the 6th best bullpen and a solid offensive lineup led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been a standout this season, they are projected to score around 5.18 runs today. In contrast, projections indicate a low output of about 3.63 runs for the Marlins, setting the stage for the Braves to assert their dominance in this matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all SPs, Edward Cabrera's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph grades out in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Vidal Brujan's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 77.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Max Fried and his 52.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today's game matching up with 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive ability to be a .349, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .052 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .401 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 86 games (+23.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 51 away games (+15.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 46% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.63 vs Atlanta Braves 5.18

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.