Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/24/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 100, Braves -1.5 -120
• Money Line: Marlins 190, Braves -220
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 33%
• Atlanta Braves - 67%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 38.46%
• Atlanta Braves - 61.54%

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Miami Marlins on April 24, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 16-6 this season, are having a great season, while the Marlins, with a record of 6-19, are struggling.

The Braves are projected to start Reynaldo Lopez, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has started three games this year and has a win/loss record of 2-0 with an impressive ERA of 0.50. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the Marlins are projected to start Sixto Sanchez, another right-handed pitcher. Sanchez has made seven appearances out of the bullpen this season and has a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 6.14. However, his 5.30 SIERA and 4.02 xERA indicate that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Braves have the best offense in MLB this season, leading in team batting average and home runs. Their powerful lineup will pose a challenge for Sanchez, who is a low-strikeout pitcher. However, Sanchez's high-groundball rate may help him limit the Braves' power-hitting ability.

In terms of the bullpen, the Braves rank fourth in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Marlins rank 28th. This gives the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the heavy favorites with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 67%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%.

With the Braves' dominant offense and strong pitching, they are expected to come out on top in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on the field. The Marlins will look to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Hitting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Nick Gordon will have an edge in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez projects to strikeout an average of 5.3 bats in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Notching 5 HRs over the last 7 days, Travis d'Arnaud has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 away games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins vs Braves Prediction: Marlins 4.03 - Braves 4.84

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