Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks 5/24/2024

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Miami Marlins on May 24, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 24-26 this season, are having a below-average performance, while the Marlins, with a record of 17-34, are enduring a challenging season.

The Diamondbacks, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, who is currently ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gallen has a solid win/loss record of 5-3 this year, with an impressive ERA of 3.02. However, his 3.60 xERA suggests that he may have been fortunate this season and could see a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Braxton Garrett, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 10.24. However, his 3.33 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Diamondbacks have a strong offense, ranking as the 9th best in MLB this season. Their best hitter, Ketel Marte, has been a consistent contributor, recording 35 runs, 27 RBIs, and 10 home runs with a batting average of .291 and an OPS of .862. In contrast, the Marlins have struggled offensively, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Jazz Chisholm, has shown flashes of brilliance with 26 runs and 7 home runs, as well as 9 stolen bases.

Considering the projections, the Diamondbacks are favored to win this game, with a projected win probability of 64% according to THE BAT X. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a projected win probability of 36%. The Diamondbacks' strong offense and the Marlins' struggling bullpen, ranked 28th in MLB, further support this prediction.

With a high implied team total of 4.60 runs, the Diamondbacks are expected to have a productive offensive performance. The Marlins, with a low implied team total of 3.40 runs, face a challenging task against the Diamondbacks' solid pitching.

Overall, the Diamondbacks have the upper hand in this matchup, both in terms of their performance this season and the projected performance of their starting pitcher. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Marlins will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset. It will be an exciting game to watch for both fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Braxton Garrett has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Josh Bell's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.71 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his slider 6.5% more often this year (9.9%) than he did last year (3.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Batters such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Braxton Garrett who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Blaze Alexander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.8% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.18 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.15

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