Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/28/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Miami Marlins on June 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a challenging season. The Diamondbacks sit at 41-40, hovering around .500, while the Marlins are struggling at 35-45. In this matchup, the Diamondbacks will look to rebound from a loss to the Marlins on Friday night.

On the mound for Arizona will be Brandon Pfaadt, who comes into this start with a mixed season. Despite his 8-5 record, his 5.49 ERA indicates that he has struggled with consistency. However, advanced projections suggest he has been a bit unlucky, and he could improve, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 17th overall in the league. Pfaadt's ability to average 5.9 innings pitched and a projected 3.0 earned runs today reflects his potential to keep the game manageable.

In contrast, Sandy Alcantara takes the hill for Miami. Despite being recognized as a strong pitcher with a Power Ranking of 54th, Alcantara has had a rough season, carrying a 6.69 ERA into this matchup. His high-groundball percentage could work in his favor, given the Diamondbacks' power bats that have already hit 118 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB.

With the Diamondbacks boasting the 3rd best offense in MLB, they have a tangible advantage. The Diamondbacks are positioned well to reach their high implied team total of 4.58 runs for this game, making them a favorable pick against the Marlins.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Sandy Alcantara will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Hitters such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph drop off from last year's 93.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the last two weeks, Alek Thomas's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .336 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 away games (+12.60 Units / 49% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 75% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.89, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.44

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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