Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 6/29/2025

On June 29, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Miami Marlins at Chase Field in what is the third game of their series. The Diamondbacks are sitting at .500 with a 41-41 record, showcasing an average season, while the Marlins struggle further down with a 36-45 record, indicative of a tough year. Notably, Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, while Cal Quantrill will get the start for the Marlins.

Rodriguez has had a mixed season, with a 3-4 record and a 5.40 ERA, which indicates he's faced some bad luck, as reflected by his more favorable 3.85 xFIP. He typically pitches around 5.7 innings and is expected to allow about 2.7 earned runs today. The Diamondbacks’ offense is thriving, ranked 3rd in MLB overall and 5th in home runs, which could bode well against Quantrill, who has struggled considerably this season. With a 3-7 record and a bloated 5.56 ERA, Quantrill faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 6th in batting average.

The Marlins’ offense, ranking 17th in MLB, has shown some promise with a solid batting average, but they also rank 26th in home runs, which could limit their effectiveness against a high-flyball pitcher like Rodriguez. This matchup sets up favorably for the Diamondbacks, who are not only playing at home but are favored with a moneyline of -185, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure the win.

With the Diamondbacks’ offensive talent facing a struggling starting pitcher, this game offers a distinct advantage for Arizona. It's a critical opportunity for them to assert dominance as they continue seeking a stronger footing in the league, particularly against a team like the Marlins.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eric Wagaman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 96.5-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Given his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez will be in a good position matching up with 9 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 67 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 away games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.62, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.96

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

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