Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 6/27/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Miami Marlins on June 27, 2025, baseball fans are looking forward to an exciting matchup at Chase Field. Both teams are in the midst of average to disappointing seasons, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 41-39 and the Marlins struggling at 34-45. This game marks the first in the series between these two National League clubs, making it a critical opportunity for both teams to build momentum.

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has been performing at a high level, boasting a 7-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.39 this season. Although Kelly's expected ERA (xERA) suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, he remains a reliable option on the mound. The projections indicate he is expected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing only 2.4 earned runs, making him a tough matchup for the Marlins' offense, which ranks just 18th in MLB.

On the other side, Miami will send Eury Perez to the hill, who has struggled with a 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 6.17. His high walk rate of 13.0% could play right into the hands of the Diamondbacks, who are 5th in MLB for drawing walks. The Diamondbacks' offense, ranked 3rd overall, has been a force this season, particularly with their power, hitting 115 home runs, which is the 5th highest in the league.

With a favorable matchup for Arizona's offense against a pitcher who has shown vulnerability, the Diamondbacks are positioned as sizable favorites in this game. The betting lines reflect this outlook, as the Diamondbacks have an implied team total of 4.77 runs, suggesting a strong offensive performance is anticipated.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Kyle Stowers has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last year's 94.4-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's matchup, Dane Myers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Considering that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Merrill Kelly (42.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eury Perez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.316 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .336 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• Pavin Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.18, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.69

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eury Perez - Marlins
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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