Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 5/26/2024

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On May 26, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Miami Marlins at Chase Field in a National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a current record of 24-27, are having a below-average season, while the Marlins are struggling with a record of 18-34, making it a terrible season for them.

The Diamondbacks will be the home team, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.05, which is above average. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him the #83 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is above average overall. His peripheral indicators, such as SIERA, xERA, and FIP, all suggest that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Marlins will send left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers to the mound. Weathers has also started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.49. However, his 4.34 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and might not sustain his success in the future.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank 13th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league. The Marlins, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 29th in MLB. They have a good team batting average, but their home run and stolen base rankings are among the worst in the league.

Based on the projections, Pfaadt is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out 5.6 batters but allow 5.9 hits and 0.8 walks, which are not favorable. Weathers, on the other hand, is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow an average of 3.4 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 3.9 batters but allow 6.1 hits and 2.0 walks, which are not ideal either.

In terms of bullpens, the Diamondbacks rank 19th best in MLB, while the Marlins rank 29th. This suggests that the Diamondbacks have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Overall, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in this matchup, with a better record, stronger offense, and a pitcher who is projected to perform better going forward. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Marlins will look to defy the odds and come out with a win.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers has used his four-seamer 13% less often this season (42.8%) than he did last year (55.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Over his previous 3 starts, Brandon Pfaadt has produced a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2523 rpm over the whole season to 2588 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Corbin Carroll's footspeed has declined this season. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.14 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Blaze Alexander has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.63 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.67

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