Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Prediction For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Oller - Marlins
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the lower tier of the National League East. The Nationals hold a record of 67-81, while the Marlins are struggling with a disappointing 55-94. The importance of this matchup is underscored by the fact that Washington is looking to gain momentum in a season that has been below average for them overall.

In their last game, the Nationals were able to secure a win, which they will hope to build on here. Meanwhile, the Marlins, who have not fared much better, are looking to turn things around. On the mound, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher with a solid ERA of 4.34, who has started 29 games this season. Gore’s 3.67 FIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, and he projects to allow only 2.4 earned runs today, which bodes well against a Marlins offense ranked 29th in MLB.

Adam Oller, the Marlins’ right-handed pitcher, has had a rough time this season with a 5.40 ERA and a win-loss record of 1-3 over five starts. Facing a Nationals lineup that ranks 22nd in offensive production, Oller might find some relief, though he is still expected to struggle with his high flyball rate against a team that has hit only 120 home runs this year, ranking them 29th overall.

The projections lean heavily in favor of the Nationals, suggesting they have a high implied team total of 4.53 runs. Given the favorable matchup with Gore on the mound and the Marlins’ struggles, the Nationals appear to be in a prime position to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Nationals Park.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Adam Oller will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Xavier Edwards has been lucky this year, compiling a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .061 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Miami Marlins will record 3.84 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-least of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has spiked 1.1 mph this year (95.5 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Luis Garcia has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Tena, James Wood, Joey Gallo).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.89 vs Washington Nationals 4.72

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