Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Nationals sit at 66-81 this season, while the Marlins are even worse at 55-93. This matchup in the National League East is crucial for both teams, but neither is in contention for a playoff spot.

In their last game, the Nationals got a 4-1 win. The Marlins have been struggling, ranking as the 29th best team in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their offense has been particularly weak, sitting 29th in overall ranking, while the Nationals rank 22nd. This sets the stage for an interesting pitching duel.

Patrick Corbin, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a rough year, boasting a 5-13 record and a 5.60 ERA, ranking him as the 317th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck moving forward. Corbin's high groundball rate (48 GB%) could play to his advantage against a Marlins lineup that lacks power, having hit only 133 home runs this season, the 4th least in MLB.

Valente Bellozo, starting for the Marlins, has also struggled, with a 2-3 record and a solid 3.57 ERA, but his 5.70 xFIP indicates he might be overperforming. Bellozo's low strikeout rate (15.4 K%) could benefit the Nationals, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Nationals are favored with a moneyline of -145, indicating they might have the edge in this matchup. Given their recent struggles and the projections suggesting a potential turnaround for Corbin, this game could be a pivotal moment for Washington as they look to finish the season strong.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.1-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nick Fortes ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Patrick Corbin will wring up 16.7 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Keibert Ruiz is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Miami (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, Jose Tena, James Wood).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 45% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.6 vs Washington Nationals 4.7

Get daily MLB picks here.