Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on September 13, 2024, both teams find themselves trending in the wrong direction. The Nationals, sitting at 65-81, have struggled this season, while the Marlins, with a record of 55-92, are having an even tougher time. This matchup marks the second game in their series, with the Nationals having lost the first game yesterday.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start DJ Herz, who has had an up-and-down year with a 3-7 record and a solid ERA of 3.82. His Expected ERA of 3.27 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Herz’s high flyball rate (38%) could play in his favor against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB with just 133 home runs this season.

Edward Cabrera, projected to start for the Marlins, has a 4-6 record and a less impressive ERA of 4.88. While Cabrera's 47% groundball rate is notable, it won't negate the fact that he also allows a concerning number of hits and walks. His projections indicate that he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which isn't ideal against a Nationals lineup that, while ranking 22nd in MLB offensive capabilities, still has the potential to capitalize on Cabrera’s vulnerabilities.

Looking at the betting lines, the Nationals are currently favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. This should bolster confidence, especially considering that DJ Herz is ranked as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average.

With both teams faltering, this game represents a chance for the Nationals to assert themselves at home while the Marlins continue their search for consistency. The projected game total stands at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera has averaged 14.2 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Miami Marlins have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Joey Gallo will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, Jose Tena, James Wood).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 144 games (+5.48 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 118 games (+12.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 61% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.78 vs Washington Nationals 4.19

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