Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 6/16/2024

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals gear up to host the Miami Marlins on June 16, 2024, at Nationals Park in what could be a pivotal game in this National League East series. The Nationals sit at 34-36, an average season thus far, while the Marlins have struggled mightily with a 23-47 record.

The Nationals will send left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound. Parker has been solid this season, boasting a 3.21 ERA and a 4-3 record through 11 starts. However, his xFIP of 3.98 suggests some luck has been on his side, and he might be due for some regression. Parker's success will hinge on limiting the damage, given the Marlins rank 29th in offensive power rankings and have one of the poorest batting averages (.241) and home run totals (53) in the league.

Opposing him is Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. Luzardo has had an unlucky year with a 5.11 ERA despite a more favorable 3.93 xFIP. This suggests he's likely to improve his performance moving forward. Luzardo will face a Nationals offense that ranks 25th in overall offensive talent, 20th in batting average (.249), and 28th in home runs (54). Washington’s struggles with power could play into Luzardo’s strengths as a high-flyball pitcher, potentially keeping the Nationals' batters in the park.

Washington’s bullpen has been a weak spot, ranked 27th in the Power Rankings. Conversely, the Marlins bullpen, while not stellar, holds a slightly better 22nd rank. This could come into play in what projects to be a low-scoring affair—reflected in the game total of 8 runs.

Offensively, Joey Meneses has been a bright spot for the Nationals, hitting .467 with a 1.367 OPS over the last week. Jake Burger has been a key hitter for the Marlins, with a .333 batting average and two home runs in the same span.

With Washington favored at -120, implying a 52% win probability, their ability to capitalize on the Marlins' misfortunes could be the deciding factor. Conversely, at +100, the Marlins have a 48% implied chance, suggesting this could be a closely contested matchup. Fans and bettors alike should keep a close eye on the pitching duel and bullpen performances as these two teams clash.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Jesus Luzardo's 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.3-mph decrease from last year's 96.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jazz Chisholm Jr. can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The 2nd-worst projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 65 games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+11.60 Units / 86% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.43 vs Washington Nationals 3.95

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