Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 6/14/2024

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Marlins
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals will host the Miami Marlins on June 14, 2024, at Nationals Park in a National League East matchup. The Nationals come into this series opener with a 32-36 record, a below-average performance this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins have struggled significantly, posting a dismal 23-45 record. This game pits two teams looking to gain some momentum despite their rough seasons.

Washington will send left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the mound. Gore has been solid this year, starting 13 games with a 5-5 record and a respectable 3.57 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gore is ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher out of roughly 350 pitchers, making him an above-average option. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.4 batters on average today, all of which bode well for the Nationals.

On the other side, the Marlins have yet to decide on a starting pitcher, as we could end up seeing them use someone out of the bullpen to kick things off in Washington.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 25th in MLB, and while their batting average is 20th, they are particularly weak in power, ranking 28th in home runs. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could be a factor against Miami tonight. Their best hitter over the past week has been Joey Meneses, who has batted .455 with a 1.266 OPS in his last four games.

The Marlins' offense has been even worse, ranking 29th overall and dead last in home runs. They also struggle with stolen bases, ranking 21st. Jazz Chisholm has been a bright spot recently, hitting .333 with a 1.010 OPS, 4 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases over the last week.

Both teams have poor bullpens, with the Nationals ranked 26th and the Marlins 28th. This matchup could come down to which starting pitcher can go deeper into the game and limit damage.

While neither team is having a standout season, the Nationals' edge in starting pitching and recent offensive production from Meneses give them a slight advantage in this series opener.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.5-mph increase from last year's 94.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.17 vs Washington Nationals 4.48

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