Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Dillon Tate - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins are set to clash at Rogers Centre on September 29, 2024, in the final game of their interleague series. With both teams enduring tough seasons, the Blue Jays hold a slight edge with a 74-87 record compared to the Marlins' dismal 61-100 mark. Toronto's playoff hopes have faded, but they'll look to end the season on a high note after dropping their last game to Miami, 8-1.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will start Dillon Tate, who has been primarily a bullpen arm this season. Despite an average ERA of 4.54, his underlying metrics, like a 3.75 FIP, suggest he's been somewhat unlucky. Tate's ability to keep the ball on the ground could neutralize Miami's power struggles, as the Marlins rank 27th in the league in home runs. However, Tate's limited projected innings (1.1) and lack of starting experience may test Toronto's bullpen depth, which ranks 26th in the Power Rankings.

The Marlins counter with Ryan Weathers, a left-hander who has shown flashes of potential with a 3.81 ERA over 15 starts. However, his projections indicate a tough outing, with expectations of 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks allowed in 5 innings. Weathers will face a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 26th in home runs, but boasts a solid lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .324 batting average and 30 home runs this season.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Blue Jays with a 63% chance of victory, projecting them to score 4.72 runs compared to the Marlins' 3.75. With both teams struggling offensively, the Blue Jays' slight edge in talent and home-field advantage could be the difference-maker in this matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers has relied on his four-seamer 15.4% less often this year (40.4%) than he did last season (55.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dillon Tate.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+14.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+15.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.75 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.72

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