Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Oller - Marlins
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Miami Marlins on September 27, 2024, at Rogers Centre. As the season winds down, both teams find themselves on the outside looking in, with the Blue Jays holding a 74-85 record and the Marlins struggling even more at 59-100. Toronto is behind in divisional standings, while Miami has had a dismal season across the board.

The Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios, a right-hander, is having a solid season with a 3.38 ERA and a 16-10 record over 31 starts. However, advanced metrics hint at some luck behind his success, as evidenced by his 4.24 xFIP. On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Adam Oller, who has been less effective with a 5.06 ERA in just seven starts this year. Miami's hopes will hinge on Oller managing to keep Toronto's offense at bay, though projections suggest otherwise, given his struggles with walks and fly balls.

Despite their below-average overall performance, the Blue Jays offense ranks 15th in the league, suggesting they have been more capable than their record indicates. However, their power is lacking, ranking 25th in home runs. Meanwhile, Miami's offense has been one of the worst, ranking 29th. Both teams’ bullpens rank poorly as well, with Toronto's at 26th and Miami's at 29th, suggesting late-game runs could be in the cards.

Jonatan Clase has been a bright spot for Toronto, posting a robust .500 batting average and 1.405 OPS over the last week. For the Marlins, Jonah Bride has shown power with two home runs and a .348 batting average in the same span. With neither team in playoff contention, this matchup serves as a test of pride and a chance to build momentum heading into the offseason.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Adam Oller is expected to post an average of 3.5 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

In the past week, Kyle Stowers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this season and has worked it in 28.8% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Nathan Lukes may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+10.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 away games (+13.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 83% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.81 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.01

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