Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Xzavion Curry - Marlins
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays and the Miami Marlins prepare for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, at Rogers Centre, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention. The Blue Jays, with a 74-86 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Marlins have struggled even more, sitting at 60-100, marking a dismal campaign.

In their last face-off on September 27, the Marlins stunned Toronto with a commanding 15-5 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on opportunities despite their offensive struggles this season. Toronto will look to rebound from this loss, keen on restoring some pride in front of their home crowd.

On the mound, Toronto's Yariel Rodriguez, ranked 138th among starting pitchers, will face Miami. Though his 4.41 ERA is average, he has struggled with a 1-7 record over 20 starts. Rodriguez's high-flyball tendencies might work in his favor against the Marlins, who rank 29th in power with just 149 home runs this season. Despite a high walk percentage, the Marlins' impatience at the plate—ranking 2nd fewest in walks—might limit their ability to exploit Rodriguez's control issues.

Opposite Rodriguez is Xzavion Curry, one of the league's weakest pitchers, with a concerning 5.02 ERA and a 5.56 xERA suggesting further regression. His low strikeout rate could be problematic against the Blue Jays, who are the 6th least strikeout-prone team. The Jays' offense, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who boasts a .326 batting average and 30 home runs, could capitalize on Curry's vulnerabilities.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, heavily favors the Blue Jays, giving them a 67% chance of winning, notably higher than the betting market's implied 60% probability. With Toronto projected to score 5.23 runs, they are the clear favorites to bounce back and secure a win in this interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all starting pitchers, Xzavion Curry's fastball spin rate of 2096 rpm is in the 15th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yariel Rodriguez has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 10.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Darren McCaughan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 away games (+12.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.83 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.24

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