Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants Best Bet – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Mason Black - Giants

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins on August 31, 2024, in a matchup that carries significance as the Giants look to maintain a competitive edge, sitting at .500 with a record of 68-68. Meanwhile, the Marlins, struggling with a 49-86 record, are in the midst of a dismal season. After facing off just the day before, the Giants emerged victorious with a 3-1 win over the Marlins, putting pressure on Miami as they enter this second game of the series.

Mason Black is set to take the mound for the Giants, and while he holds the #310 rank among MLB starting pitchers, his 8.79 ERA this season suggests he's been among the league's worst. However, his xFIP of 6.52 indicates he may have been unlucky in his outings. Black’s high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Marlins offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 2nd least in home runs with just 85 this year.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera, an average pitcher according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a rough season with a 5.60 ERA but has shown flashes of potential, recently pitching five innings against the Giants and allowing three earned runs while striking out eight batters. The Giants offense, while ranked 18th overall, has demonstrated the ability to take walks and may exploit Cabrera’s control issues, as he has a high walk rate of 12.7%.

With the Giants' bullpen ranked 1st and the Marlins' at 28th, San Francisco appears to have the edge in late-game scenarios. Betting lines reflect this sentiment, with the Giants favored at -155, while the Marlins sit at +135. The projections lean towards a Giants victory, suggesting they could score around 4.47 runs, compared to Miami's projected total of 3.94 runs, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors and fans alike.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2161 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2243 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Miami Marlins have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Derek Hill, Jake Burger, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Mason Black has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -15.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Conforto has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.94 vs San Francisco Giants 4.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.