Miami Marlins at New York Mets Prediction For 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins in a critical National League East matchup on August 18, 2024. The Mets currently sit at 64-59, boasting an above-average season, while the Marlins are struggling at 45-78, marking one of the worst records in baseball. This is the third game in the series, with the Mets aiming to capitalize on their strong offense against a depleted Marlins squad.

In their last outing, the Mets showcased their potential by earning a convincing victory, while the Marlins continue to seek consistency. Projected to start for the Mets is Paul Blackburn, a right-handed pitcher with a 5-3 record and a 4.43 ERA, which is average. Blackburn is known for his high groundball rate (48% GB), a factor that bodes well against a Marlins offense that has hit just 85 home runs, ranking 2nd least in MLB. Although Blackburn ranks #186 among MLB pitchers according to advanced statistics, his performance could be enhanced by facing a team that struggles to generate power.

Conversely, the Marlins are sending out Valente Bellozo, also a right-handed pitcher, who boasts an impressive 2.28 ERA but has been somewhat fortunate in his performances. Bellozo's 4.73 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this stellar ERA for long. He has a high flyball rate of 47% and will face a potent Mets offense that ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs this season. This matchup could heavily favor the Mets, particularly given their strong showing in recent weeks, highlighted by Mark Vientos, who has been on fire with a .412 batting average and 1.428 OPS over the last week.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs and the Mets favored at -185, bettors should feel confident in New York's ability to capitalize on this matchup, projecting a team total of 4.85 runs. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ anticipated team total of 3.65 runs indicates a challenging day ahead for their hitters.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Valente Bellozo in the 25th percentile among all SPs in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Jake Burger).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all starters, Paul Blackburn's fastball velocity of 91.4 mph ranks in the 25th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos's true offensive ability to be a .319, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .057 deviation between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+12.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.98 vs New York Mets 4.97

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