Miami Marlins at New York Mets Best Bet – 6/12/2024

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins will square off on June 12, 2024, for the second game of their series at Citi Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Mets holding a 28-37 record and the Marlins at an even worse 23-43, placing both teams at the bottom of the National League East standings. The Mets snagged the win yesterday, which extends their slight upper hand against their division rival.

On the mound, New York will turn to David Peterson, a lefty who has had a mixed bag of a season so far. While his 3.09 ERA looks great on the surface, his 5.02 xFIP suggests he's been riding a wave of good fortune and might not sustain his current level of performance. However, he's holding a 1-0 record across two starts, showing some effectiveness in limited action. In contrast, Braxton Garrett of the Marlins has a 5.81 ERA coupled with a more promising 3.47 xFIP, indicating that he's been significantly unlucky and might perform better moving forward.

Offensively, the Mets have been average this season, ranking 13th in overall capability according to our advanced metrics. Their batting average ranks 14th while their home run tally is similarly 14th, showcasing modest power and consistency at the plate. Jose Iglesias has carried the offensive load over the past week, hitting an impressive .500 with a 1.225 OPS over four games.

The Marlins' offense, on the other hand, ranks near rock-bottom, sitting at 29th overall. Despite a surprisingly decent team batting average of .263, their power numbers are abysmal, ranking 28th in home runs. Bryan De La Cruz has been the standout recently, posting a .263 average and an .879 OPS with a home run in the last week, but the team overall lacks punch.

Pitching-wise, both teams have similar projections for their starters today. Both Peterson and Garrett project to toss around 5.5 innings, although Peterson is expected to handle his workload slightly better, allowing fewer earned runs on average. With both bullpens also ranking poorly (Mets at 21st and Marlins at 28th), this matchup could hinge on which starter performs above expectations.

The game total sits at 7.5 runs, indicating oddsmakers foresee a low-scoring affair. The Mets are currently favored at -145, translating to an implied win probability of 57%, and given the matchup details, that seems justified. With a slight edge in most departments and home-field advantage, the Mets have a favorable outlook heading into this game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, batters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a significant advantage over groundball batters, David Peterson and his 49.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's matchup squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will get to bat from his better side against Braxton Garrett in this game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.53 vs New York Mets 4.08

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