Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins gear up to host the Miami Marlins at Target Field on September 24, 2024, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Twins have an 81-75 record and are looking to solidify their position and potentially push for a playoff spot, while the Marlins are enduring a dismal 57-99 season, already out of playoff contention.

The Twins are big betting favorites in this matchup, with a moneyline of -235 and an implied win probability of 68%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Twins as the favorite, but with a slightly lower win probability of 64%, suggesting potential value in betting on the Marlins as an underdog. Nonetheless, Minnesota is favored to score a solid 5.06 runs on average in the game.

On the mound, Bailey Ober, the Twins' projected starter, has been a reliable asset, boasting a 12-7 record with a 3.84 ERA. His advanced metrics indicate he's pitched better than his ERA suggests, with an xERA of 3.18. Notably, Ober's high-flyball tendencies could work in his favor against a Marlins lineup lacking power, ranked 27th in MLB for home runs. Meanwhile, Miami's Ryan Weathers, with a 3-6 record and a matching 3.94 ERA, faces a challenging task against an above-average Twins offense that ranks 11th overall.

The Marlins' offensive struggles are evident, ranking 29th overall, though Jake Burger has been a recent bright spot with a .318 average and three home runs over his last six games. Conversely, the Twins have seen a recent surge from Matt Wallner, who has hit .409 over the past week. As the Twins aim to capitalize on this favorable matchup, Miami will be looking for a spark to upset the odds.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's fastball spin rate has risen 118 rpm this season (2326 rpm) over where it was last season (2208 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jonah Bride is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ryan Jeffers has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 79.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 92 games (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 away games (+15.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 47 games (+40.50 Units / 86% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.02 vs Minnesota Twins 5.05

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