Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 7/26/2024

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Miami Marlins on July 26, 2024, the two teams find themselves in starkly different positions this season. The Brewers, with a record of 59-43, are enjoying a strong season and are firmly in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Marlins, at 37-66, have had a dismal year and are well out of contention.

The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound, who has been nothing short of elite this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Peralta ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in the league. Despite a solid 3.88 ERA, his 3.27 SIERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could see even better results moving forward. Peralta's high-flyball tendency should play well against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in home runs, making it difficult for Miami to capitalize on his mistakes.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Trevor Rogers, who has struggled mightily this season. With a 4.59 ERA and a 1-9 record, Rogers has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. His high walk rate (10.2 BB%) could spell trouble against a Brewers lineup that is 3rd in drawing walks. Milwaukee's patience at the plate could lead to a lot of baserunners and scoring opportunities.

Offensively, the Brewers have a significant edge. Milwaukee's lineup ranks 8th overall, with a particularly strong showing in batting average (5th) and stolen bases (2nd). In contrast, the Marlins' offense has struggled, ranking 29th overall and 20th in batting average. Over the past week, Jackson Chourio has been a standout for Milwaukee, hitting .429 with a 1.048 OPS, while Vidal Brujan has been a bright spot for Miami, batting .500 with a 1.386 OPS.

Given the Brewers' strong season, elite starting pitching, and offensive advantages, it's no surprise they are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -225 and an implied win probability of 67%. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%, face an uphill battle in this National League matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

When it comes to his batting average, Xavier Edwards has been lucky since the start of last season. His .327 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .233.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Miami Marlins hitters collectively place 23rd- in the game for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Joey Ortiz is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 95 games (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+10.20 Units / 93% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.62 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.68

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