Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies Pick For 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins prepare for their matchup on August 26, 2024, neither team is in contention for a playoff spot, with both sitting near the bottom of their division standings. The Rockies hold a record of 48-83, while the Marlins are even at 47-83. The Rockies last took the field on August 25, suffering a 10-3 loss to the New York Yankees, further contributing to their disappointing season. In contrast, the Marlins managed a 7-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs in their previous game, which could inspire a bit of momentum.

Ryan Feltner is projected to take the mound for the Rockies, but his season has been underwhelming, with a Win/Loss record of just 1-10 and an ERA of 5.00. While his 4.16 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his overall performance still ranks him as the 198th best starting pitcher in MLB. Meanwhile, Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins. His own struggles include a 5.65 ERA and a record of 2-5. Notably, Cabrera pitched 6 innings with 3 earned runs in his last outing on August 20, showing signs of capability, even if his performance has been inconsistent.

Despite both teams' struggles, this game presents an opportunity for the Rockies, with advanced projections indicating that they may score approximately 5.77 runs. The Rockies also possess the 12th best batting average in MLB this season. Given these factors and Cabrera's ongoing challenges, there's a chance for the Rockies to turn things around at Coors Field. The Rockies have a high implied team total of 5.25 runs today, reflecting optimism from betting markets, which could entice bettors seeking value in this contest.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera has gone to his change-up 5.9% more often this year (37.1%) than he did last year (31.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

There has been a decrease in Nick Fortes's average exit velocity this year, from 88.1 mph last year to 84.1 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Jake Burger).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.275) suggests that Ezequiel Tovar has been very fortunate this year with his .320 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.67 vs Colorado Rockies 5.82

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