Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Miami Marlins on August 27, 2024, both teams enter the matchup struggling in the standings. The Rockies sit with a 49-83 record, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 47-84. This game marks the second in their series, and both teams are looking to break out of their recent slumps. In their last outing, the Rockies defeated the Marlins, while the Marlins continue to search for consistency.

On the mound, Colorado is projected to start Cal Quantrill, who has had an average season with a Win/Loss record of 8-9 and an ERA of 4.56. Despite being ranked as the 202nd best starter in MLB, his performance has been inconsistent, particularly in allowing 3.4 earned runs and 6.7 hits on average per game. Meanwhile, Roddery Munoz takes the hill for the Marlins, struggling with a 2-7 record and a troubling ERA of 5.98. Although Munoz's xFIP suggests some potential for improvement, he remains one of the weaker pitchers in the league.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 19th overall and 12th in team batting average, while their power numbers are more encouraging, sitting at 10th in home runs. Conversely, the Marlins' offense ranks 29th overall and is particularly lacking in power, sitting last in home runs. This stark contrast could give the Rockies an edge, especially with Brenton Doyle emerging as their best hitter over the past week, boasting a .304 batting average and a .906 OPS.

With the Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, the Rockies are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting an implied team total of 5.95 runs. In contrast, the Marlins are seen as underdogs with a total of 5.05 runs. Given the projections and matchup dynamics, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for betting enthusiasts, particularly regarding the Rockies' offensive potential against a struggling Marlins lineup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Generating 14.5 outs per start this year on average, Roddery Munoz places in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Kyle Stowers has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact type (10th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill's change-up utilization has spiked by 12.1% from last year to this one (22.4% to 34.5%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 40 games (+19.10 Units / 38% ROI)
• Connor Norby has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 97% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.75 vs Colorado Rockies 6.83

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