Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 7/14/2024

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins are set to face off in the third game of their series on July 14, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a 47-49 record, are having an average season and sit in the middle of the National League standings. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a dismal 32-63 record, are struggling mightily and find themselves near the bottom.

Nick Lodolo will take the mound for the Reds, bringing his excellent 3.30 ERA and solid 8-3 win/loss record into the game. Lodolo, ranked #49 among starting pitchers by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has been consistent all season. However, his xFIP of 3.80 suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could regress. Lodolo's projected stats for the game are average across the board, highlighting his potential vulnerability against a Marlins offense that struggles mightily.

Trevor Rogers is slated to start for Miami. With a 1-9 record and a 4.82 ERA, Rogers has had a rough year, which is further emphasized by his standing as one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rogers is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.9 walks, indicating a tough outing ahead against a Reds offense that, while average, ranks 1st in stolen bases and 14th in home runs.

Offensively, the Reds have been buoyed by Rece Hinds, who has been on fire over the last week with a .500 batting average and five home runs in six games. In contrast, the Marlins' Jesus Sanchez has been their best hitter over the same period, though his .278 average and two home runs pale in comparison to Hinds' recent form.

The Marlins' bullpen, ranked 15th, might offer some stability late in the game, while the Reds' bullpen, ranked 25th, could be a liability. With Cincinnati being a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -180, the Reds are expected to capitalize on their superior pitching and recent offensive surge to secure a win. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Recording 14.9 outs per start this year on average, Trevor Rogers checks in at the 21st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Bryan De La Cruz has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 11.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jake Burger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.6% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Elly De La Cruz has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds projected lineup projects as the 5th-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 88 games (+10.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 away games (+14.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 66% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.65 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.05

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