Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 7/12/2024

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On July 12, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park for the first game of their series. While neither team is having a standout season, the Reds (45-49) are performing better than the Marlins (32-61), who are struggling mightily. This National League matchup features two right-handed starters: Carson Spiers for the Reds and Yonny Chirinos for the Marlins.

Spiers, with a 2-2 record and a 3.64 ERA this year, has shown promise despite being ranked the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 4.57 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate and could regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he will likely allow 3.2 earned runs in 5.1 innings while striking out 3.9 batters. Given that Spiers is a high-flyball pitcher facing the Marlins' power-starved offense, he may find some advantage.

Yonny Chirinos has also had a tough season with a 4.19 ERA###102, though his 3.38 FIP suggests he's been unlucky. He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs in 4.9 innings, striking out 4.3 batters. The Reds' offense, ranked 19th overall but #27 in batting average, might make it easier for Chirinos to navigate through the lineup.

Offensively, the Reds have been average, with Rece Hinds as their standout hitter over the past week. Hinds boasts a .500 batting average and a 1.688 OPS in his last four games. On the other hand, Dane Myers has been the Marlins' top hitter recently, with a .400 average and a 1.137 OPS over his last six games.

The Reds have the edge in this matchup with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. Meanwhile, the Marlins are underdogs at +130, with a 42% implied win probability. While the Reds' bullpen ranks 27th in advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Marlins' bullpen sits at a more respectable 17th.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

In the past week, Jesus Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13% up to 27.3%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Spiers to throw 85 pitches in today's game (11th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Will Benson's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 88.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+15.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.25 Units / 46% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 5.51 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.27

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