Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs Pick For 4/18/2024

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 18, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • A.J. Puk - Marlins
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -160, Cubs -1.5 135
• Money Line: Marlins 135, Cubs -155
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 41%
• Chicago Cubs - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 44.82%
• Chicago Cubs - 55.18%

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the Miami Marlins on April 18, 2024, at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will be the home team for this game, and they are having a great season with a record of 11-7. On the other hand, the Marlins are struggling with a record of 4-15, making it a terrible season for them.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who is an average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs. Taillon's strikeout rate is below-average, but he has been performing well in terms of earned runs allowed.

The Marlins, on the other hand, are projected to start left-handed pitcher A.J. Puk. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Puk is considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards. He has started 2 games this season with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 5.91, which is considered horrible. Additionally, Puk's xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and is likely to perform worse going forward.

In terms of offense, the Cubs rank as the 12th best in MLB this season, while the Marlins rank as the 28th best. The Cubs have a good team batting average and rank 6th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Marlins have a great team batting average, but their power numbers are lacking, ranking 28th in home runs.

Taking a look at the bullpen, both teams rank relatively low in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, with the Cubs at 20th and the Marlins at 23rd. This suggests that the bullpen performance could be a factor to watch during the game.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Marlins, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +130, with an implied win probability of 42%.

Given the Cubs' strong offense and the Marlins' struggles on the mound, the Cubs have a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, while the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.65 runs.

It will be interesting to see how the Cubs' lineup fares against A.J. Puk, who has struggled with control, as they have shown patience at the plate and drawn many walks this season. The outcome of the game could heavily depend on this matchup.

Overall, the Cubs have the advantage in this game based on their strong season and the projected performance of their starting pitcher. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Marlins will be looking to turn things around. It should be an intriguing matchup between these two teams at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, A.J. Puk meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jesus Sanchez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ian Happ is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Alexander Canario, Michael Busch).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Miguel Amaya has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 58% ROI)

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction: Marlins 3.88 - Cubs 4.1

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