Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 8/1/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 1, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all starters, Max Meyer's fastball spin rate of 2398 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Xavier Edwards is penciled in 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Miami Marlins have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.1-mph figure last season has lowered to 83-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+22.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+13.90 Units / 126% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.45 vs Atlanta Braves 5.23

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