Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 8/2/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shaun Anderson - Marlins
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins on August 2, 2024, both teams are coming off a matchup the day before, where the Braves secured a 4-2 victory. The Braves currently sit at 59-49, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins are struggling at 40-69, marking one of the worst records in the league.

In this National League East clash, Atlanta will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Schwellenbach, ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, is coming off a stellar performance where he pitched seven innings, allowing no earned runs and striking out 11 batters. His 4-5 record and 4.06 ERA this season suggest he has been a bit unlucky, with a 3.47 xFIP indicating potential for better results going forward. He'll face Shaun Anderson, who has had a rough season with an 11.42 ERA and a 0-2 record in just two starts. Anderson's last outing was particularly disastrous, where he allowed five earned runs over three innings.

The Braves' offense ranks 14th overall this season and is bolstered by Marcell Ozuna, who has been their standout hitter with 31 home runs and a .303 batting average. In contrast, the Marlins rank 29th in offense, struggling to generate runs and power, with only 85 home runs this season.

The projections favor the Braves heavily, with a high implied team total of 5.74 runs for today's game. Given Schwellenbach's recent success and the Marlins' offensive woes, Atlanta looks poised to continue their winning ways in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Shaun Anderson will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nick Fortes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Burger, Kyle Stowers, Forrest Wall).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive ability to be a .350, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .404 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 86 games (+23.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.35 Units / 39% ROI)
• Spencer Schwellenbach has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.29 vs Atlanta Braves 5.77

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