Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 4/23/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Max Fried - Braves
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -105, Braves -1.5 -115
• Money Line: Marlins 205, Braves -245
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 32%
• Atlanta Braves - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 30.09%
• Atlanta Braves - 69.91%

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Miami Marlins in a National League East matchup on April 23, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a season record of 15-6, are having a great season, while the Marlins, with a record of 6-18, are struggling. The Braves will be looking to extend their winning streak, while the Marlins aim to turn their season around.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start the left-handed pitcher Max Fried. Fried, currently ranked as the #6 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is considered an elite pitcher. He has started 4 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-0. Although his ERA stands at 7.71, his 4.45 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Fried will be the left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers of the Marlins. Rogers, on the other hand, is considered a below-average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 4 games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 3.92. However, his 3.40 xERA and 2.45 FIP indicate that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Braves have been dominant this season, ranking as the #1 team in MLB. They lead in team batting average and home runs, while also ranking #7 in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Marlins offense has struggled, ranking as the #29 team in MLB. They excel in team batting average but lag behind in home runs and stolen bases.

The Braves bullpen is considered the #4 best in MLB, providing strong support for their starting pitchers. In contrast, the Marlins bullpen ranks as the #26 best in MLB, which may present a challenge for them in this game.

With Max Fried's strong pitching and the Braves' powerful offense, they enter this game as heavy favorites with an implied win probability of 68%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 32%. Based on the current odds, the Braves have a high implied team total of 5.44 runs, while the Marlins have a lower implied team total of 3.56 runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Trevor Rogers is projected to record an average of 14.8 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme groundball bats like Avisail Garcia are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Orlando Arcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+14.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 away games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Marlins vs Braves Prediction: Marlins 3.4 - Braves 5.01

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