Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/7/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Nationals, with a dismal record of 3-6 this season, are struggling to find their footing, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 9-2 record, showcasing their strong start. This game serves as the first in a series between these two clubs, adding to the anticipation.

The Nationals will send MacKenzie Gore to the mound, a left-handed pitcher ranked 56th among starting pitchers in MLB by the leading MLB projection system. Gore has had a rough start to the season, holding a 0-1 record over two games, although his 2.45 ERA indicates he has pitched well. However, he projects to give up an average of 2.5 earned runs, and his high flyball rate could be detrimental against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs this season. On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Dustin May, a right-handed pitcher who has dazzled in his only start, posting an impressive 0.00 ERA. Despite his good fortune so far, with projections suggesting regression ahead, he presents a challenge for the Nationals offense.

With the Dodgers holding a favorable moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 4.57 runs, they are predicted to capitalize on the Nationals' weaknesses, particularly considering the Nationals' last week performance against other opponents. The Game Total is set at a moderate 8.0 runs, but given the current trajectories of both teams, the Dodgers appear likely to continue their success this April.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball hitters, Dustin May and his 47% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position today being matched up with 5 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last season's 95.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen grades out as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.5% vs. 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dustin May.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 games (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 114 games (+25.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

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