Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the first game of their series on August 16, 2024, at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 60-61, find themselves in an average position this season, while the Dodgers stand at 71-51, enjoying a great campaign. Both teams are coming off losses, with the Cardinals falling to the Cincinnati Reds 9-2 on August 14 and the Dodgers losing to the Milwaukee Brewers 6-4 on August 15.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, boasting a 5.30 ERA this year, indicative of a challenging season. Despite being ranked as the 172nd best starting pitcher in MLB Power Rankings, Mikolas has an xFIP of 4.26, suggesting he might be due for better luck moving forward. He is known for his control, with a low walk rate of 4.0 BB%, which could play a key role against a high-walk Dodgers offense ranked 2nd in MLB.

On the other hand, Justin Wrobleski is set to start for the Dodgers. With a 4.05 ERA and a 0-1 record this year, Wrobleski has only made four starts, but his 4.85 xFIP indicates that he might be overachieving in his performances. The Dodgers' offense, ranked 5th in MLB, is powered by Shohei Ohtani, who has been a force this season with 37 home runs and a .994 OPS.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals are projected to score an average of 4.91 runs, while the Dodgers are expected to put up 5.33 runs. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, this matchup promises excitement, as both teams look to improve their standings in this crucial game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Justin Wrobleski has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -11.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Will Smith is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's curveball rate has fallen by 8.3% from last season to this one (20% to 11.7%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.7-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

St. Louis grades out as the #5 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (43.8% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 4 away games (+4.85 Units / 121% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.41 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.91

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