Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/8/2025

On June 8, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium for the third game of their series. The Cardinals are currently 36-28, enjoying a solid season, while the Dodgers sit at 38-27, having a great year overall. In their last matchup, the Cardinals took the victory, showcasing their powerful lineup.

Michael McGreevy is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Although he has only made one appearance out of the bullpen this season, he boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA, though his 3.64 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate so far. McGreevy is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a Dodgers offense that leads MLB with 101 home runs this season. His ability to limit walks (5.0 BB%) may help mitigate the Dodgers' patient approach at the plate, but the power potential of Los Angeles could turn his flyballs into home runs.

Opposing McGreevy is Clayton Kershaw, who has had a rough start to his year with a 5.17 ERA and a 5.80 xERA, indicating that he too may have benefited from good fortune. Kershaw's average projection of 5.1 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed reflects a pitcher who is struggling to find his rhythm.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 10th overall in MLB, but they struggle with power, sitting 23rd in home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers' offense ranks 2nd, with stellar performances from their top hitters. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive showdown. With the Cardinals as underdogs at +120, there may be value in their ability to turn the tide against a struggling Kershaw, especially given the projections that favor their offensive potential in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Clayton Kershaw has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 11.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.4-mph average to last season's 99-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 10.8% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #3 club in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Michael McGreevy will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Max Muncy has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.33, St. Louis Cardinals 4.6

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Michael McGreevy - Cardinals

Get daily MLB picks here.