Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/7/2025

On June 7, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. The Cardinals, currently holding a record of 35-28, are having a solid season, while the Dodgers sit at 38-26 and are enjoying an impressive year. In their previous matchup, the Cardinals emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Dodgers to even the series.

St. Louis will send right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde to the mound, who is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 3.2 earned runs on average. Fedde’s 3-5 record and 3.82 ERA indicate he has been decent, though his 4.89 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Facing him will be the elite Yoshinobu Yamamoto, also a righty, who boasts a 2.39 ERA and a 6-4 record. Yamamoto is projected for 5.9 innings and is expected to allow just 2.2 earned runs, showing why he ranks as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB.

Offensively, the Dodgers are firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Cardinals have struggled to find power, ranking 24th in home runs and 24th in stolen bases. The projections suggest that the Dodgers will score around 4.85 runs, while the Cardinals are expected to muster only 3.65 runs.

With the Cardinals’ offense ranking 10th overall but lacking in power, they face a daunting challenge against a Dodgers lineup that has been both patient and potent. The Cardinals' bullpen is also a concern, sitting 22nd in MLB, which could be a critical factor late in the game if the Dodgers build an early lead.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 94th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

As it relates to his home runs, Tommy Edman has had some very good luck this year. His 29.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 74% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.73, St. Louis Cardinals 3.98

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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