Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/6/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 6, 2025, fans are buzzing with anticipation. The Dodgers currently lead the National League West with a strong record of 38-25, while the Cardinals, at 34-28, are holding their own in the Central Division. This matchup is significant as it marks the beginning of a series between two of the league's competitive teams, making it an important game for both squads.

On the mound, the Cardinals are set to start Sonny Gray, who has been a reliable force this season with a 6-1 record and an ERA of 3.65. Gray's last outing was impressive, as he went 7 innings, allowing no earned runs while striking out 10 batters. His ability to limit walks could play a crucial role against a Dodgers lineup known for their patience at the plate. Gray's projections suggest he may allow around 2.5 earned runs today, which could be manageable given his recent form.

Conversely, Los Angeles will send Justin Wrobleski to the mound, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 8.00. In his last start, Wrobleski allowed 8 earned runs, raising concerns about his ability to contain a potent Cardinals offense that ranks 10th overall in the league. While projections indicate he may perform better today, his inconsistencies make him a potential liability.

With both offenses showcasing their strengths—Los Angeles boasting the best overall batting average and the most home runs in the league, while St. Louis has excelled in batting average as well—the stage is set for a thrilling matchup. Betting markets suggest this will be a tight contest, and with their recent performances, the Cardinals may have the edge, particularly with Gray on the hill.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This season, Shohei Ohtani has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 101.5 mph compared to last year's 99 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Tallying 17.2 outs per GS this year on average, Sonny Gray checks in at the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Justin Wrobleski.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.01, St. Louis Cardinals 5.05

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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