Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 6/28/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to host their division rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, on June 28, 2024, at Oracle Park in the first game of a crucial National League West matchup. Despite the Giants having a below-average season with a 39-43 record, they will look to leverage their home-field advantage against the 51-31 Dodgers, who are having a great season.

Logan Webb, the Giants’ ace, will take the mound. Webb’s impressive 2.99 ERA and his ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB indicate he’s been elite this season. However, his 4.40 xERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky and could regress. Webb's groundball-heavy approach (58% GB rate) could neutralize the Dodgers' powerful lineup, which ranks 3rd in home runs with 111. Additionally, Webb's low walk rate (5.2%) might counteract the Dodgers' high walk rate, another of their offensive strengths.

The Dodgers will counter with Landon Knack, projected to pitch just 4.8 innings on average. Knack's projections are less favorable, with an expected 2.5 earned runs and just 4.0 strikeouts. The Dodgers bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, will need to be sharp to support Knack, especially against a Giants offense that is average overall but ranks poorly in stolen bases (30th).

Offensively, the Giants will look to Matt Chapman, who has been their best hitter over the last week, boasting a .350 batting average and a 1.008 OPS over six games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear, hitting .400 with a 1.765 OPS and four home runs over his last five games.

Both teams have a low implied team total of 3.75 runs, reflecting the betting market's expectation of a close game. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a 58% win probability, suggesting there may be value in backing San Francisco in this matchup. With their top-ranked bullpen and Webb's ability to keep the ball on the ground, the Giants have a solid chance to start this series on a high note.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Will Smith tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (43.9 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 3.96 vs San Francisco Giants 4.61

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