Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 5/11/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the San Diego Padres will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in an exciting National League West matchup at Petco Park. The Padres, with a season record of 21-20, are having an average season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 26-14 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who has had a tough season so far. Waldron has started seven games and holds a win-loss record of 1-4. His ERA stands at 5.82, which is considered quite high. However, his 4.58 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Dodgers are projected to start left-handed pitcher James Paxton. Paxton has been performing well this season, with a perfect 4-0 win-loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.06. However, his 6.09 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in the future.

The Padres offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks at a lower 20th position. In contrast, the Dodgers have the best offense in MLB, displaying their exceptional talent and power. They rank 2nd in team home runs, while their team batting average stands at an average 12th position.

In terms of pitching, the Padres have the 8th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Dodgers rank 13th. This suggests that both teams have solid relief pitching to support their starters.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers, the Padres may face a challenge as Waldron is a high-flyball pitcher, and the powerful Dodgers offense has hit 186 home runs this season, the second most in MLB. This matchup could potentially favor the Dodgers, as their power could turn Waldron's flyballs into home runs.

On the other hand, Paxton's high-walk rate of 17.3% may work in favor of the Padres, as they have the second-most walks in MLB. Their patient approach at the plate could lead to drawing a lot of walks against Paxton, who struggles with his control.

In terms of betting odds, the Padres are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +125, implying a win probability of 43%. The Dodgers, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -145, indicating a win probability of 57%.

With the Padres having an average implied team total of 4.15 runs and the Dodgers having a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, it suggests that the game could see a relatively high-scoring affair with a Game Total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. James Paxton has relied on his secondary offerings 8.9% less often this year (33.8%) than he did last season (42.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

James Outman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Since the start of last season, Jurickson Profar's 3.9% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 13th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Luis Campusano, the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 124 games (+15.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.53 vs San Diego Padres 4.86

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