Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/9/2025

The matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 9, 2025, is notable not just for its rivalry but also for how closely matched the two teams are, with both teams performing well this season. The Padres sit at 37-27, while the Dodgers hold a slightly better record of 39-27, reflecting their elite offensive capabilities. In their last game, the Dodgers demonstrated their prowess by delivering a strong performance, contributing to their ongoing success.

On the mound, the Padres will send Nick Pivetta, who has had a solid year with a 6-2 record and a 3.16 ERA, making him the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, Pivetta faces a daunting challenge against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in offensive production and has mashed 102 home runs this year. Given that Pivetta is a high-flyball pitcher (43 FB% this season), this could lead to a tough outing, as the Dodgers excel at turning those flyballs into round-trippers.

Conversely, the Dodgers will counter with Dustin May, who is having a decent season himself, despite a 3-4 record and a 4.09 ERA. While May's strikeout rate is below average, he excels at inducing ground balls (49 GB%), which plays to his advantage against a Padres offense that has struggled mightily, ranking 22nd overall and 25th in home runs this season.

With the Padres projected to start Pivetta, despite their impressive bullpen ranking 3rd overall, the Dodgers hold the edge in offensive firepower. The projections suggest a close game, with the Padres having an average implied team total of 3.90 runs while the Dodgers sit at 4.10 runs. This series opener between these two National League West rivals could be critical as both teams continue to jockey for position in a competitive landscape.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his last outing, Dustin May performed well and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers bats as a unit grade out 5th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.07, San Diego Padres 4.45

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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