Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Dodgers currently sit at 40-27, enjoying a great season, while the Padres are slightly behind at 37-28, having a good year but not quite in the same league as their rivals. In their last matchup, the Padres fell to the Dodgers, which adds a layer of pressure for the home team to bounce back.

Dylan Cease is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Despite being ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB, Cease's record of 1-5 this season suggests he has faced some misfortune. His 4.72 ERA is average, but his 3.22 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results. Cease's tendency to give up fly balls could be concerning against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has already hit 103 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.

On the other side, Jose Urena will pitch for the Dodgers. Urena has struggled this year, with a 5.40 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 12.2%. His projections suggest he will pitch poorly today, averaging just 4.3 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs. This matchup could favor the Padres as their offense, while ranked 21st overall, has shown flashes of potential, particularly from their best hitter, who has been on a hot streak recently.

Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a perceived close contest. However, the projections suggest that the Padres may have a better chance than expected, especially if Cease can capitalize on his luck metrics and the Dodgers' batting average dips against his pitching style. With a game total of 8.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup as both teams vie for an important victory.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jose Urena in the 1st percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

In the last 14 days, Tommy Edman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.9-mph EV last season has lowered to 85.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.49, San Diego Padres 4.66

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Dodgers
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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