Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 6/5/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 5, 2024, at PNC Park. As the home team, the Pirates will be looking to improve their below-average season record of 28-32, while the Dodgers aim to continue their great season with a record of 38-24.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start the right-handed pitcher, Paul Skenes. Skenes has been performing exceptionally well this season, boasting a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skenes is ranked as the #10 best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his elite skills.

Opposing Skenes will be the left-handed pitcher, James Paxton, for the Dodgers. Although Paxton has a solid 5-0 win/loss record, his ERA of 3.29 suggests that he may not be performing at his best. Additionally, his 5.40 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate in his performances and could regress in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking as the #28 team overall in MLB. Their batting average of #26 and home run count of #23 reflect their below-average performance. However, their stolen base ranking of #12 shows some average talent in that area.

On the other hand, the Dodgers boast the #2 best offense in MLB, displaying their power and skill at the plate. Their high ranking in team batting average and home runs emphasize their dominance in these categories. However, their stolen base ranking of #20 suggests a relative weakness in that aspect.

Both teams have average bullpens, with the Pirates ranking #12 and the Dodgers ranking #13. This implies that the relief pitchers for both teams are of similar skill level and can be expected to perform at an average level.

When analyzing the projected performance of each pitcher, Skenes is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, but giving up 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks, which is less than ideal. On the other hand, Paxton is also projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, but is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs, strike out 4.3 batters, and surrender 5.5 hits and 2.3 walks, which is also below average.

Considering the pitching matchup, the Pirates may have an advantage as Skenes has been performing at an elite level, while Paxton has struggled with his performance. Additionally, Skenes's ability to induce groundballs may neutralize the Dodgers' power-hitting lineup.

The game total for this matchup is currently set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for total runs scored. The Pirates are the slight favorites with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, while the Dodgers have a moneyline of +100 and an implied win probability of 48%.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. James Paxton has used his non-fastballs 6.4% less often this season (36.3%) than he did last season (42.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among all starters, Paul Skenes's fastball velocity of 98.7 mph ranks in the 100th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Bryan Reynolds has suffered from bad luck this year. His .323 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .436.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a group grade out 23rd- in the game for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 7.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+9.40 Units / 85% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.75 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.71

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