Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction & Odds – 8/3/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On August 3, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Oakland Coliseum for the second game of their interleague series. The Athletics, with a record of 45-65, are struggling this season, while the Dodgers, sitting at 63-46, are experiencing a strong campaign. The Athletics offense ranks 19th overall, but it has been a hot-and-cold affair, especially highlighted by JJ Bleday, who has been their best hitter over the last week.

Mitch Spence is projected to start for Oakland, bringing a 7-6 record with an average ERA of 4.47. Although he has shown flashes of potential, his 3.79 xERA suggests he might be due for better luck. Spence faces a daunting challenge against an elite Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in runs scored and home runs. However, his groundball tendencies (48 GB%) could neutralize the Dodgers’ power-hitting capabilities slightly.

Jack Flaherty will take the mound for Los Angeles, boasting a solid 7-5 record and an impressive 2.95 ERA this season. His ability to generate strikeouts (32.1 K%) makes him a tough matchup for an Athletics team that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts. Flaherty’s projections indicate he will aim to limit the Athletics to around 2.1 earned runs, further stacking the odds against Oakland.

With the Athletics being a significant underdog with a moneyline of +150, the projections suggest that they may struggle to reach their implied team total of 3.51 runs. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have an implied team total of 4.49 runs and will look to capitalize on their offensive strengths. Given the current state of both teams, expect the Dodgers to come out swinging, looking to extend their winning ways against a faltering Athletics squad.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty's slider utilization has jumped by 6.6% from last season to this one (24.8% to 31.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 99.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .338 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's 90.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 7th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brent Rooker has had some very good luck given the .048 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+18.60 Units / 124% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.85 vs Oakland Athletics 3.82

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