Dodgers vs Mets Game 3 Prediction & Picks 10/16/2024

• Date: October 16, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In the high-stakes environment of October 16 at Citi Field, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of their National League Championship Series matchup. The Mets, albeit having won the prior contest 7-3, find themselves in a tight battle against a Dodgers lineup that has consistently been the top-ranked offense in MLB this season. With the series tied, both teams will be looking for a pivotal victory to gain momentum.

On the mound for the Mets is Luis Severino, the right-hander who boasts a respectable 11-7 record this season, along with a solid 3.91 ERA. Despite Severino's average ranking of #115 among starting pitchers, the Mets will rely on his ability to navigate a potent Dodgers lineup led by Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers' offensive prowess is undeniable, ranking 1st in both overall offense and home runs, which could pose a significant challenge for Severino.

Facing the Mets is Walker Buehler for the Dodgers. Buehler has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA, suggesting vulnerabilities on the mound. However, his xFIP of 4.49 indicates that he's been a bit unlucky and might be due for a turnaround. Buehler’s ability to contain a Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs could be crucial in this tight contest.

In terms of bullpen depth, the Dodgers hold an advantage with their 4th-ranked bullpen compared to the Mets' 13th-ranked relief corps. This could play a decisive role in what is projected to be a close game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 55% win probability, 5% more than the betting market implies, suggesting there could be value in backing the Dodgers in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

New York's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jesse Winker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 115 games (+23.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 109 games (+21.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.57 vs New York Mets 3.93

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