Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/24/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers visit Citi Field on May 24, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Dodgers, currently holding a record of 32-19, rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the New York Mets, at 30-21, are enjoying a solid season but find their offense ranked only 9th overall. In their last game against each other, the Mets put up a valiant fight, but ultimately fell short, heightening the intensity of this crucial series.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher with a solid ERA of 2.86 this season, although he ranks 121st among starting pitchers, indicating he is below average. Peterson has been somewhat fortunate in his performance, as suggested by his xFIP of 3.56, which signals potential regression. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings but is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs, with a troubling projection of 5 hits and 2.4 walks—figures that could be problematic against the powerful Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers counter with Tony Gonsolin, who holds a 2-0 record and an ERA of 4.05. While Gonsolin is considered an average pitcher, he has a FIP of 4.63, suggesting he may not be as effective as his ERA indicates. He projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs but struggling with a concerning projection of 4 hits and 2.1 walks.

With both teams evenly matched at a moneyline of -110, the game total is set at 8.5 runs. The projections indicate that while the teams are closely aligned in terms of overall performance, the Mets could benefit from their strong ground-ball tendencies against a Dodgers offense that thrives on power—an edge that could sway this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Because groundball batters have a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Tony Gonsolin and his 36.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today's game being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This season, Shohei Ohtani has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 102.2 mph compared to last year's 99 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters jointly grade out 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. David Peterson has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.2% more often this season (47.7%) than he did last season (42.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Brett Baty usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.64 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.09, New York Mets 4.62

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers
  • David Peterson - Mets

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